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A Sheffield University Study : Fangio/ Prost/ Alonso Greatests F1 Drivers Podium


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#1 M Needforspeed

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Posted Apr 16 2016 - 05:28 AM

http://www.motorspor...rs-of-all-time/

  Seems that's a never ending question that focuses energy ...

  We are promptly invited to agree completely with this list !!

Stirling Moss 35, Christian Fittipaldi 12.What maths formulas did they use ???

The Fittipaldi all racing family has immediatly put a claim against this list.They say there is one name missing .They forgot Wilson Fittipaldi.Correction done, and the list wld be completely right !!!
Others Fittipaldi followers are wondering  now about the mystery behind the number eight on the list.There is a good chance it is Wilson ?? After all, Villeneuve admirers have got the first name wrong : that's Jacques the good one !!  

  At least the list gives justice to common false assessment that Jochen Rindt, Alberto Ascari and Mario Andretti have been greats drivers.We are kindly invited to soon forgot them . Please, do what Josef Staline did with some of his friends who appeared wrongly with him on some pictures.


1. Fangio
2. Prost
3. Alonso
4. Clark
5. Senna
6. Stewart
7. Piquet
8. Fittipaldi
9. Schumacher

10. Vettel
11. Hamilton
12. Christian Fittipaldi
13. Nico Rosberg
14. Button
15. Graham Hill
16. Gurney
17. Scheckter
18. Damon Hill
19. Rosier

20. Peterson
21. de Angelis
22. Rodriguez
23. Surer
24. Kubica
25. Farina
26. Ginther
27. Hulme
28. Heidfeld
29. Räikkönen

30. Reutemann
31. Pryce
32. Pace
33. Watson
34. Hawthorn
35. Moss
36. Beltoise
37. Depailler
38. Frentzen
39. Barrichello

40. Brabham
41. Fagioli
42. Ricciardo
43. Jones
44. Brundle
45. McLaren
46. Boutsen
47. Keke Rosberg
48. Regazzoni
49. Jacques Villeneuve
50. Webber

Edited by M Needforspeed, Apr 16 2016 - 09:52 AM.


#2 M Needforspeed

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Posted Apr 16 2016 - 05:40 AM

"" A Dr Andrew Bell of Sheffield Methods Institute, in conjunction with the University of Sheffield has just published the paper Formula For Success: Multilevel modelling of F1 driver and constructor performance applying statistical analysis to answer the question of who the greatest F1 driver of all time might be. It’s not the first time such a thing has been tried, but maybe the first to be attempted by an official academic institution.

The modelling methods attempting to de-couple car and driver performance are sophisticated but as with all such efforts, the basic premise that it is possible to accurately model the miraculous mix of neurons, psychology, hydrocarbons and elastomers that is this sport is deeply flawed. Just like telemetry defining driving technique, it is tail wagging of a dog. Our understanding of the processes involved is so incomplete, we have an imperfect idea of how the picture is formed but a visceral appreciation of the quality of the picture. We can know the level of performance of the great drivers without resorting to statistics – and if working the other way, the modelling does not support that picture, then it is the modelling that is clearly wrong, not the picture.

Watch Lewis Hamilton or Fernando Alonso on the limit today and their specialness is obvious. In earlier times, anyone with a basic understanding of the dynamics involved who watched Stirling Moss in action knew without a sliver of doubt that they were watching genius. Even his peers acknowledged as much. The way that Jochen Rindt or Gilles Villeneuve could almost sidestep the laws of physics marked them out as special. Then there was the subtlety of technique of a Fangio or a Prost, the searing speed of Alberto Ascari, the commitment bordering on madness of Ayrton Senna or Nigel Mansell, the shrewd brilliance of Jackie Stewart, the phenomenal gift of Jim Clark that team-mate Trevor Taylor said made the hairs on the back of his neck stand on end when contemplating it.

So any list trying to correlate statistics with greatness has to pass the first test: is it free of obvious nonsense? The top six using Dr Bell’s modelling – Fangio, Prost, Alonso, Clark, Senna, Stewart – doesn’t look ridiculous. But look through the top 50 and you will notice the absence of: Rindt, Niki Lauda, Mansell and Ascari. Yet present are: Louis Rosier (who used to drive privateer Ferraris in the early ‘50s at relatively sedate endurance-like pace and consequently had a good finishing record) and Christian Fittipaldi (the 12th-greatest F1 driver of all time according to this list, eight places above Ronnie Peterson!). You will find that Marc Surer was better than Stirling Moss by 12 places! That’s really all you need to know about this list – impeccable academic credentials and methodology can still produce something producing such nonsensical results ""

Finding a way of identifying and isolating the various traits of drivers and then assessing their relative importance in the specific demands of the era in which they raced, the cars they were driving, how well that infinite combination of particular talents meshed with the demands of any given day, in a given car on a given track would be illuminating. But that’s a fantasy. And best left that way.

Edited by M Needforspeed, Apr 16 2016 - 06:04 AM.


#3 M Needforspeed

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Posted Apr 16 2016 - 05:45 AM

...

Edited by M Needforspeed, Apr 16 2016 - 07:05 AM.


#4 twinpotter

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Posted Apr 16 2016 - 07:12 AM

You and we can go on about this forever and come up with a difference of opinion as well as numerous lists.
I don't agree with the list. For me it's flawed and a waste of time. Lists like this should be formulated by fans and media alike and not pen pushing student bodies,who don't know the difference between F1 and Rally Car driving.

TP:

#5 GrandPrixYannick

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Posted Apr 16 2016 - 07:17 AM

There are so many lists of these out there that it has become something entirely subjective.
Everyone has a different opinion about this, this list has little to no meaning to me.

#6 ed76

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Posted Apr 16 2016 - 10:02 AM

Louis Rosier : 19th
1950 & 51 ; 14 GP with talbot : 16 pts

1952 to 1955 ; 20 GP with Ferrari : 0 pts
1956 : 5 GP with Maserati : 0pts

According to the explanations , it can be concluded that they consider early 50s Ferraris as bad cars

#7 Robert Fleurke

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Posted Apr 16 2016 - 04:56 PM

I miss Taki Inoue in the top 5.

#8 marco lenarduzzi

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Posted Apr 16 2016 - 11:54 PM

I can't believe that Tazio Nuvolari,Alberto Ascari,Gilles Villeneuve,Niki Lauda,Jochen Rindt,Mario Andretti and Francois Cevert did not make the list ! I mean seriously,Christian Fittipaldi,Boutsen,Frentzen,Rozier. Nico Rosberg ahead of Graham Hill and Dan Gurney ? We really can't take this seriously.                                                                                   Men become great because they are capable of great things.Greatness can only come from passion,devotion and determination not from statistics.

#9 snafu

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Posted Apr 17 2016 - 04:15 AM

To add to the list of notable missing names...

Where is Surtees???

Not that I would probably understand it but I think they need to explain their formula.

I presume as tax paying UK citizen I'm indirectly paying for these people to come up with this rubbish. :angry:

TTFN
John.

#10 ed76

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Posted Apr 17 2016 - 04:40 AM

I think this ranking was only done in order to make"publicity" for this university.

statistics are boring only if one is able to make a good choice criteria and appropriate coefficients

#11 Cookie

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Posted Apr 17 2016 - 05:26 AM

Just nonsens, maybe released at April 1st :zzzzz:

How comes a Gerhard Berger is not listed but Heidfeld...

#12 M Needforspeed

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Posted Apr 17 2016 - 07:03 AM

View Postsnafu, on Apr 17 2016 - 04:15 AM, said:

To add to the list of notable missing names...

Where is Surtees???



I presume as tax paying UK citizen I'm indirectly paying for these people to come up with this rubbish. :angry:

TTFN
John.

We suffer of even more obscure University non controlled monster expenses, in France .This said, that certainly motor racing oriented students that proposed to apply Mr Bell formulas to the topic.


If Patrick O' Brien know this, he must be as surprised by John Surtees absence. In his  GRAND PRIX RATING SYSTEM season Summaries 1960-1969, his method, clearly detailed, shows Surtees was equal of Jim Clark .

John Surtees, maybe the true all times most underrated driver.?

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Edited by M Needforspeed, Apr 18 2016 - 03:26 AM.


#13 twinpotter

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Posted Apr 17 2016 - 08:43 AM

Little bit about the man who publihed the paper   https://www.sheffiel...-us/andrew-bell

TP: :punish:

Edited by twinpotter, Apr 17 2016 - 10:53 AM.


#14 Iestyn16

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Posted Apr 17 2016 - 05:55 PM

Some of the high rankings here, e.g. Christian Fittipaldi, are due to the model not discounting DNFs, but counting them as a low finishing position. Hence why Lauda, Ascari, Rindt etc. are way back in the rankings. The paper makes a lot of reference to Phillips (2014) and Stadelmann (2009), who published papers of this type already - Dr. Phillips' work is viewable at https://f1metrics.wordpress.com. He told me he is still working on updating his model and will in future take into account factors like age modelling; he is planning a post soon that compares the three published models.

I am also a fan of Patrick O'Brien's Grand Prix rating system, and have also tried to compare both methods of study (statistical and time-based analysis). Patrick said he will continue to publish the 1910s, 1900s and so on to the start of racing before hopefully continuing on with the 2010s ("if there is enough left in the tank!"). If I did a masters thesis, this area is definitely something I would consider!

#15 M Needforspeed

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Posted Apr 18 2016 - 03:20 AM

"It is therefore impossible to know how Fangio would perform in a modern Formula 1 car, were he to be magically transported to the present day. Similarly, it is impossible to know how Schumacher would perform, were he to be magically transported back to Fangio’s heyday. In that sense, there can be no direct comparisons made between different eras. We can’t hope to sensibly answer the question: Who would win out of Schumacher and Fangio racing the same car in the same era?

What we can do is make direct comparisons between drivers in the same era by comparing them to their teammates. Since drivers typically have many different teammates across their careers, we can obtain an estimate of how drivers rank relative to one another. We can then compare relative performances between drivers in different eras, where no direct comparison is possible. An overall ranking list can then be constructed."


" we can then .... list can then be constructed"

That 's where in my opinion  Dr Phillips puts subjective and highly criticable conclusions.He goes on the trap of comparing eras. O'Brien saw the danger, and only gives classification for one year.

Edited by M Needforspeed, Apr 18 2016 - 03:38 AM.





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